DR Congo’s Tactical Setup Poses Unexpected Challenge for England

England are widely expected to secure a victory in their upcoming match against the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Opta’s statistical analysis gives England a 73.9% chance of winning in normal time. However, the tactical approach implemented by DRC manager Sébastien Desabre suggests the game might be more challenging for England than these probabilities indicate.

Desabre has adopted a distinct strategy when facing stronger opposition, a departure from his methods during qualification matches. While the DRC typically utilized a four-man defense in 12 of their 13 qualifying games and in a pre-tournament friendly against Chile, they switched to a back five. This 5-3-2 formation was deployed in a warm-up match against Denmark and carried through their group stage fixtures against Portugal and Colombia. Despite facing teams ranked significantly higher (19th, sixth, and 17th respectively), the DRC conceded only two goals across these three matches.

Defensive Solidity

The DRC’s defensive resilience extends beyond mere formation changes. According to Opta, Denmark managed shots totaling only 0.74 expected goals (xG), while Portugal (0.65 xG) and Colombia (0.98 xG) also struggled to create high-quality scoring opportunities. Desabre’s side excels at frustrating opponents, forcing them into taking lower-probability shots from long range when their attacking movements falter. By maintaining a strong defensive shape and keeping opposing teams at a distance from their goal, the DRC effectively limits the quality of chances conceded. The average non-penalty shot faced by teams playing against the DRC was worth 0.06 xG, compared to the group stage average of 0.10 xG. Only Spain’s defense performed better by this metric, and they achieved this while dominating possession to a far greater extent.

Furthermore, the DRC allowed only four more shots than England in their respective penalty areas during the group stage. This is a notable achievement considering the caliber of opposition they faced. Captain Chancel Mbemba leads a well-drilled backline that demonstrates a low propensity for errors. In the group stage, Mbemba and his teammates successfully caught 11 opponents offside, the joint-third most among all teams. Opta also noted only one error directly leading to an opposition shot, which is two fewer than England committed.

Set-Piece Threat and England’s Challenge

England may find themselves looking to set-piece situations to break down the DRC’s defense, especially after their goalless draw against Ghana, where they failed to score from a dead-ball situation. However, Desabre’s team has also shown effectiveness in defending set plays. In the group stage, the DRC conceded the ninth-lowest expected goal total from set plays among 48 participating nations, and the sixth-lowest from all non-penalty shots. This suggests that England will need to find innovative ways to unsettle the DRC’s compact back five.

One area where England can find encouragement is in their improving dribbling performance in advanced areas. They completed four opposition-half take-ons against Croatia, six against Ghana, and seven in their most recent match. Jude Bellingham’s dribble that won a corner, leading to England’s opening goal against Panama, exemplifies this growing threat.

Ultimately, England’s primary challenge may be in their clinical finishing. They missed the most Opta-defined big chances in the group stage (nine), and while Norway had more total chances (14), England were not far behind with 13. Given that the DRC have only conceded two such opportunities to their opponents so far, England’s focus will likely be on creating and converting their chances effectively against a well-organized defensive unit.

Key facts
| Aspect | Detail |
|————————-|———————————————————————-|
| England’s win probability | 73.9% (Opta) |
| DRC’s defensive formation | Primarily a 5-3-2 against stronger teams, a change from qualification |
| DRC’s defensive record | Conceded only two goals vs. Portugal, Colombia, and Denmark |
| England’s challenge | Converting chances and breaking down a disciplined low block |

Source: The Guardian Football – https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jul/01/dr-congo-tactics-england-sebastien-desabre-world-cup-last-32

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