Harry Kane leads Ballon d’Or betting as Messi and Yamal stay in contention

Harry Kane has become the leading contender for the 2027 Ballon d’Or, with betting markets placing the Bayern Munich striker as the 13/10 favourite after a season that combined extraordinary individual scoring with team honours.

The England captain scored 61 goals in 51 appearances for Bayern across all competitions, helping the club win the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal and German Super Cup. He also won the Bundesliga Golden Boot and DFB-Pokal Golden Boot. At the World Cup, Kane added six goals, taking his total for the season beyond 60. Although England were eliminated in the semi-finals, his tournament performance reinforced his reputation as a decisive player on the biggest stage.

Kane has never finished on the Ballon d’Or podium. His previous spell at Tottenham Hotspur produced elite goal numbers but no major trophies, a factor that often separates winners from contenders. His move to Bayern has changed that equation, and the combination of a 60-plus goal campaign with domestic silverware has moved him ahead of the field.

Closest challengers in the betting

Lamine Yamal is the second favourite at 9/4. The 19-year-old Barcelona winger helped Spain win the World Cup and also contributed to Barcelona’s La Liga and Spanish Super Cup titles. His 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 club appearances underline his all-round influence, and World Cup success could sway voters who prioritise international achievement.

Lionel Messi remains in contention at odds that reflect his enduring status. The 39-year-old scored eight goals at the World Cup, second only to Kylian Mbappe, and led Inter Miami to the MLS Cup, MLS MVP award and MLS Golden Boot. A World Cup victory for Argentina would have made him the clear favourite, but Spain’s win in the final leaves his case reliant on a strong club season outside Europe.

Key facts

Other contenders

Kylian Mbappe finished as La Liga’s leading scorer and the Champions League Golden Boot winner with 42 goals in 44 club appearances. However, Real Madrid did not win a major trophy, and France exited the World Cup in the semi-finals before losing the third-place play-off. The absence of silverware may count against him in a year where several candidates have both numbers and honours.

Rodri, who won the Golden Ball as the best player at the World Cup, is another name in the conversation. The Manchester City midfielder’s influence on Spain’s triumph was significant, but an injury-disrupted club season means he lacks the domestic achievements of Kane or Yamal.

Defending Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele is a longer-odds candidate. The Paris Saint-Germain forward helped his side win Ligue 1 and the Champions League, scoring in the final against Arsenal, and added six goals at the World Cup. In a year with multiple extraordinary campaigns, retaining his crown may be a steep ask.

What this means for readers

For FootballGames10 readers who follow betting markets, the Ballon d’Or odds provide a snapshot of how the season’s narrative is shaping up. Kane’s position as favourite reflects a rare alignment of individual output and team success. The race remains open, with Yamal and Messi close behind, and the final vote will depend on how voters weigh club trophies, international performance and personal statistics.

Source: The Athletic Football – Harry Kane heads Ballon d’Or betting with Messi and Yamal in contention (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7468058/2026/07/25/harry-kane-ballon-dor-messi-yamal-world-cup/)